Modelling Design Partners has built a model to calculate the odds for each participating nation to win the international Rugby 2011 tournament which starts this week in New Zealand. Calculations are based on ten years of statistical data, and uses random numbers to calculate the various random paths to victory.
We originally calculated the odds for each nation, based on 200,000 simulations. We have now updated the model with the latest match results, up to the 19th of September, and recalculated the odds based on 10,000 simulations.
The latest results from the updated 10,000 simulations are now included in the following report:
The results from the 19th of September are inculded here:
The results from the 12th of September are inculded here:
The original results of the 200,000 simulations are included here:
To subscribe to a regular report update, as the tournament progresses, simply fill in the “Subscribe” box on the right.
In our model, we first included the probabilities for each nation to progress to each of the quarter finals.
The next table shows the probability for each nation to progress to the semi finals.
These results can then be compared to the average market odds, as calculated on the 4th of September 2011, based on the average of 20 separate bookmakers. Based on the simulation results, the market odds for each team can then be evaluated. The market does seem to be over-valuing New Zealand’s chances of winning, while at the same time greatly under-valuing the chances of Australia winning.
