2013-09-05 London
Any given Friday – the new season starts
A few months ago, MDP announced that our data analytics team was building a new predictive model for American Football, using the latest data fusion techniques. We have predicted the top players a day before the first match of the new season.
This new model may be of particular interest to fans of the so-called ‘Fantasy Football’ game, which is popular with American Football fans all over the world. Early versions of ‘Fantasy Football’ have been around since the early 1960′s, but became more popular in the 1980′s and 1990′s. It has been booming with the growth of the internet over the last 10 years. This season is expected to generate profits in excess of $1Bn (US) through television deals, advertisements, draft guides, game fees and endorsements.
MDP previously built models based on historical statistics for international Rugby Union championships, and the latest model for American Football will use MDP’s expertise in modelling to provide valuable player insights.
The first match of the regular season kicks off today at 8:40pm (EDT) with the defending Superbowl champions, the Baltimore Ravens, taking on one of this year’s favourites, the Denver Broncos.
In the previous 10 meetings between these two teams, the Ravens have ended up victorious in 7 of them, including their last meeting when they won in overtime in the AFC divisional playoff game 38-35. Even with the history favouring the Ravens, MDP’s prediction for the match is that the Broncos will be the winners in their match-up today, with a resounding 37-17 victory.
Although MDP would like to be able to predict the future – this technology is not yet something that has been developed, so the score has to be seen within a range of potential outcomes. The following graph shows more accurately the range of scores which are most likely at the end of the first match. There is still a reasonable chance the Ravens could beat the Broncos, but the odds are not looking good.
The first match of the season is one matter, but the full season lies ahead, and one battle won doesn’t mean the season is won. MDP selected a set of players which most Fantasy Football fans might want to include in their Fantasy Football selection for this season. Before the full teams are revealed, it is worth showing the statistics that determined which top Quarterbacks to select.
David Duguid, an experienced financial modelling specialist, who has provided expert advice in advanced mathematical statistical software for many years, remained sceptical. “Although the MDP model makes predictions based on cutting-edge analysis of publicly available data, the challenge for these mathematical data algorithms will be to outperform the old hands of American Football”.
The MDP model was constructed by using various data sources, which other models have rarely combined. This approach has caused some to question the accuracy of the model, however this approach has also created serious interest from American Football fans. Stephen Delahunt, a long-standing fan of American Football, has shown interest in predictive models, specifically for Fantasy Football. “I’m very interested in using some of the MDP model’s results. These guys are using weather effects on injury probabilities, and analyse player pairings, and their previous track-records in detail. I’m really going to give the results a go, and see where my team ends up”.
Peter McCrudden, a qualified actuary at a large UK insurance company, also thinks there is some merit in predictive analytical models. “Over the last few decades actuaries have already been using historical data and advanced mathematical models to estimate probabilities of future insurance events that have uncertain outcomes. This approach usually requires complex data algorithms that can filter out noise from the raw data to ensure the estimators used are accurate”.
The best players to select for Fantasy Football teams, as calculated by the MDP predictive model, and authorised by MDP in-house expert, Dieter Barnard, will be published in a separate article soon. So, if you don’t want to miss out on our weekly updates, subscribe to our New Thinking newsletter.
